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Prediction for CME (2023-12-30T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-30T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28395/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Due to an ongoing STEREO campaign, this event is only visible for a few frames in STEREO A imagery. The source is a large filament eruption in the SE (spanning 30E30 to S40E70) which begins to lift-off around 2023-12-30T08:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 09:30Z, and post eruptive arcades begin to form around 10:00Z seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193. This event partially overlaps with CME: 2023-12-30T08:00Z. Event though there is an arrival at L1 at 2024-01-03T14:19Z the 2023-12-31T22:00Z CME is a much more likeliy candidate for this arrival, expecially based on the relatively high speed at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-03T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) is detected in the LASCO/C2 imagery first lifting off the solar surface around 07:48 UTC on Dec 30th. The CME is associated with a small filament eruption in the south-east quadrant and related long-duration C2.6 flaring from NOAA AR 3534 (beta). Coronal dimming is observed in the SDO/AIA images after 08:00 UTC on Dec 30th. The nature of the filament eruption and lack of STEREO coronagraph data make it difficult to accurately estimate the CME speed, but the average projected velocity is around 400 km/s. While the bulk of the eruption is off the Sun-Earth line, a minor glancing blow could impact Earth during the UTC night of Jan 2nd or UTC morning of Jan 3rd. The Earth at that time is expected to be affected by an ongoing high speed stream, so any potential glancing blow arrival might be mixed with it.

Lead Time: 61.57 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-12-31T13:26Z

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